Tioga, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

841
FXUS63 KBIS 091710
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1210 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected across
  southwest and portions of south central North Dakota this
  afternoon through the early evening.

- 20 to 40 percent chance of rain showers today.

- Breezy to windy conditions are expected through the end of the
  workweek.

- Temperatures will continue warming through the end of the
  week, with a cooler and more active period starting Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

Winds over southwest ND continue to hover close to advisory
criteria. In the far southwest, humidities have dropped to
around 20 percent with sustained winds around 25 mph, already
into RFW criteria. Farther north and east, isolated showers were
located over northwest and north central ND. Made some minor
changes to sky cover and pops mainly for Aviation purposes.
Otherwise no significant changes to the forecast at this time.

UPDATE
Issued at 852 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

Minor adjustments were made to sky cover and pops in the
northwest and north central this morning and early this
afternoon. No changes to the ongoing RFW. Will keep an eye on
winds as well. Could be close for a wind advisory in the
southwest as well. Updated text products will be transmitted
shortly.

UPDATE
Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

Generally quiet weather is found over western and central North
Dakota this morning. The area of weak reflectivities that
traversed southern North Dakota overnight has exited to the east
of the forecast area, with the tail end of the associated cloud
deck not far behind. A low to mid level cloud deck has begun to
push into northwestern North Dakota, roughly indicating where
the anticipated cold front can be found at this time. In terms
of updates, have blended in the latest satellite data into the
sky grids. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

An upper level shortwave cutting across the northern Plains is
favored to close off later this morning, becoming stacked with a
low pressure center found over northeastern North Dakota. A
cold front associated with this system is thus expected to dig
south across the forecast area through the day today, promoting
increasing cloud cover and low chances (20 to 40 percent) for
light rain through the early afternoon and early evening. With
modest model MUCAPE values of 200-300 J/KG becoming available
over portions of northwestern and central North Dakota this
afternoon, a few rumbles of thunder are not out of the question,
though severe weather is not anticipated. When all is said and
done, measurable precipitation is expected to be fairly limited
by the time showers end late this evening, generally a few
tenths of an inch up to around 0.1", with the highest amounts
mainly found along an axis from the the northwest down to the
southeastern tip of Lake Sakakawea. Windy conditions are also
expected to develop ahead of and along the cold front pushing
through the forecast area today, with northwesterly winds with
speeds up to 25 to 30 MPH and gusts up to 40 MPH this afternoon.
With such high winds, and with much of the measurable
precipitation found further north, critical fire weather
conditions are expected over southwestern and portions of south
central North Dakota this afternoon. See the Fire Weather
Discussion section below for details. Otherwise today, high
temperatures today are forecast broadly from the mid 50s north
up to the lower 60s south.

Dry weather and warming temperatures are then anticipated
through the remainder of the workweek as an upper level ridge
settles over the northern Plains. High temperatures on Thursday
are similar to what they are today, in the 50s to lower 60s,
which Friday is expected to be the warmest day of the week, with
widespread highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Breezy south
winds are possible Friday as the surface pressure gradient
tightens up due to a to a low pressure center ejecting off of
the rockies butts up against the broad high pressure lingering
over the eastern CONUS. As this surface The ruling ridge begin
to erode late Friday into Saturday as an aggressive, longwave
trough is progged to swing out of western Canada over the Great
Plains. This trough heralds a pattern shift back toward cooler
and wetter conditions through the weekend and into early next
week. Low chances for precipitation are expected to develop
across northern North Dakota late Friday through much of the day
Saturday as the aforementioned surface low is lifted up into
the Great Lakes region. As the more agitated pattern begins to
settle late Saturday, this is followed by a much more robust,
much more widespread medium to high chances for precipitation
that lingers through Sunday into early next week. With
temperatures trending cooler during this period, the question of
what type of precipitation arises. While all rain is current
advertised by the ensemble through the weekend, subfreezing low
temperature are then favored Monday morning. With this, a
general transition to a rain- snow mix is expected by Monday.
The potential for accumulating snow during this period is
currently low, however.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

Scattered areas of MVFR ceilings around KMOT to begin the 18Z
TAF period, otherwise VFR conditions. MVFR ceilings should lift
by or just after 18Z at KMOT. Included VCSH at KMOT and KXWA
early this afternoon. Strong northwest winds 20 to 35 knots at
all TAF sites this afternoon, diminishing this evening, but
remaining breezy at times through the night. Northwest winds
will increase again over central ND around mid-morning Thursday.
MVFR ceilings over north central int eastern ND will drop south
and also spread back west, bringing MVFR ceilings into KMOT and
KJMS 06-09 UTC, and then remaining through mid to late morning
Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

A Red Flag Warning has been issued for this afternoon through
the early evening for southwest and parts of south central North
Dakota. Strong northwest winds sustained around 30 mph and
gusting up to 45 mph are expected, with the strongest winds over
our far southwest counties. Minimum relative humidity is
forecast to drop to around 22 percent. With this, critical fire
weather conditions are expected this afternoon. Near critical
fire weather conditions are expected in the counties just north
of those in the Watch area.

Of note is that low chances for rain are expected across much of
the forecast area through the day today. However, most of this
precipitation is expected to remain north of the are under the
Red Flag Warning this afternoon. A brief shower or two is not
impossible over the southwest or south central this afternoon,
though the chances are low and the potential for measurable
precipitation is even lower. If and where such showers do
develop, however, gusty and erratic winds should be expected,
especially if it falls as virga.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ031>034-040>046-050.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...Adam
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...Adam