Tioga, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

891
FXUS63 KBIS 040740
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
240 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions possible today.

- Isolated showers this afternoon.

- Cooler today and Tuesday, followed by a gradual warm-up
  through the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Northwest flow continues across the Northern Plains and Upper
Mississippi River Valley from a low pressure system in southern
Canada. There are two cold fronts extending off this low
pressure, one that has already move through the state, and
another currently in central North Dakota. The first front
gusted winds to 50 MPH for a short period, the second has light
rain along the front. Slight chances for rain was added to the
current NBM forecast. The second front is also creating gusty
winds, but only to around 30 MPH.

Today will be cooler, but still breezy. Expect highs in the
post frontal air to be in the mid 40s north to mid 50s far
south. Winds will be from the northwest, gusting near 30 MPH.
Winds will be very close to Advisory criteria, especially in the
southwest. Some models have strong winds gusting near 50 MPH,
and others don`t. Confidence is lower, especially with the cold
front passage happening now, along with the high pressure
bubble. We will wait and see if the winds do end up stronger
than forecast. There is still some fire weather danger today
with the winds and afternoon humidities dropping to 30 percent.
So we will maintain the near-critical wording, pay attention to
your local burn restrictions. Under the cyclonic flow from the
low pressure system, scattered isolated showers are possible
this afternoon. With this, we covered our area in a broad slight
chance (20%) through the afternoon.

The rest of this week we will remain in the northwest flow as a
ridge builds in the western CONUS. This ridge will slowly force
the northwest flow and cooler air to shift east. This in turn
will warm our surface temperatures. By this weekend we will be
back above normal temperatures with highs possibly in the mid
and upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR CIGs and breezy through the forecast period. There is a
slight chance of rain showers tonight. Winds will be
northwesterly gusting near 30kts, calming in the late evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Smith